I want to cut through any ancillary commentary and give you why I’m predicting a win for Trump in 2020. Even though the Democrats are my primary frustration, that’s not fully why I am making my current assessment. My assessment is based on a number of factors.
1. Trump has no opponents: the Establishment opposition actually oppose him from the right. Look at their position on Deficits and the Economy in general and Foreign Policy – they think he’s not tough on Putin and North Korea enough (a traditionally right wing hawkish position to take in American politics). See their insane demands of him in the ongoing Trump-Kim negotiations. So from the economy to foreign policy, they offer nothing less hawkish but rather more extreme positions. This is not going to win them any Republican votes and Democratic and Independent voters tend to be less hawkish.
2. Not Winning Trump Voters: since the election, the Democrats have made no overtures to the electorate who voted Trump(With the exception of Sanders who the Democrats like to remind everyone he’s not one of them). They’ve literally taken on the Clinton deplorables tack with Trump voters. Demonization and shaming doesn’t win former foes over. The focus on how stupid Trump is and by extension his voters, actually hardens his support base instead of winning them over(see recent polls on his approval ratings). The Democrats aren’t offering policy specifics to get these voters over but just hammering on how stupid and idiotic or bad or evil Trump and his voters are. Listen to Michelle Obama display chagrin at women Trump voters-there’s something wrong with them… This is a losing tack.
3. Not Winning Sanders and Independent Voters or those who didn’t vote: just like Trump voters, establishment Democrats have been shitting on Sanders voters and those who didn’t vote. Scroll through any random news item about Trump and people are blaming it on Sanders voters and those who didn’t vote. Listen to Obama chastise those who didn’t vote on several occasions instead of understanding the frustration with politics that led to people sitting out. This is a daily occurrence and message from Democrats and their leaders. Instead of trying to coax (with a message on policy) these people to support them, they want to shame them to voting for them. This pisses people off instead of winning them over. Remember Chuck Schumer the current leader of the Democrats in the Senate said he’s happy losing some Democrats because he was targeting Republicans before the 2016 elections? How did it go? Yet he’s the Democrats’ leader. His counterpart in the House (Nancy Pelosi) said Democrats didn’t need a new direction. So they are going into the next election with the same losing strategy that cost them the House, Senate and put Trump in the White House. They just instituted a rule targeting Sanders…read up on it. So point 3 is summed up in ‘they are not expanding their support base, they are rather contracting’.
4. The Economy/Unemployment: Whatever you say, the unemployment is super low at less than 4%. You can argue that it’s because of Obama’s policies etc but why would the ordinary voter care about that? At least Trump isn’t making it go up. Why should they change him if he’s maintaining or improving the economy and unemployment rates? Pundits always say the economy is the number one issue for most voters. Superficial voters (most voters) can’t read through nuance so they only see low unemployment and a booming stock market.
5. Strength💪🏾: this is where Trump is winning hands down when it comes to his base. When he takes on Canada and Mexico and the EU on tariffs, most of his base are with him (read comments on Fox News and Breitbart). They buy his rhetoric of Canada cheating the US. They can’t see through the complex issues when it comes to tariffs between a developed and stronger economy vs a smaller partner. If open wide, it’s suicide for the smaller economy. But for most Americans, they couldn’t care how it affects Canada. It’s about how it affects them. And Trump is saying I will protect American workers from tariffs from any country where America allow their goods in without any tariffs. You gotta be adept in international diplomacy to see how the US-Canada-EU relationship isn’t just about a tariff on steel, but more interconnected and complicated leading to these allies going along with the US invading other countries for their resources etc. But the ordinary Trump voter neither has the time nor interest in understanding these nuanced issues. All they see is Trump is strong and looks out for us. All the opposition does is say we stand with our allies while Trump plays the ‘I stand with the American people’ game. Who do you think wins in this game?
As for his so called cruel policies to immigrants and to minorities, most Americans don’t care about that. And immigrants don’t vote.
I am not basing my assessment on the meeting between Trump and Kim which a lot of people are hyping up to ridiculous proportions, but I have been thinking through this a lot. Bush was a complete moron and a disaster for the US. The stupid wars he started will cost Americans trillions of dollars. His madness of runaway neoliberal capitalism caused the financial crisis which left untold damage to millions of Americans and billions around the world. But he was reelected even though he could be argued to have been just as asinine as Trump.
There’s no Democratic candidate who can defeat Trump in 2020. Sanders might stand a chance but he’ll never be allowed to win the Democratic nomination. His interests and that of the Democrats in power are diametrically opposed!